Marine Weather Discussion

000
AGXX40 KNHC 280603
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
1013 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF...WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING E ALONG ROUGHLY 27N TOWARD TAMPA FLORIDA. BUOY 
AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS 
ACROSS THE GULF...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT MAINLY 
OVER THE STERN GULF WATERS. SEA HEIGHTS RANGE 1 TO 3 FT OVERALL. 
WINDS OVER THE SE AND SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WILL INCREASE STARTING 
EARLY FRI...AS TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV MOVES NW ALONG THE SOUTHERN 
COAST OF CUBA AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF BY LATE SAT AS A 
HURRICANE. GUSTAV IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL 
GULF BY LATE MON. MARINE INTERESTS IN THE GULF SHOULD KEEP 
ADVISED OF THE GUSTAV INTENSITY. SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER 
WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC OR TCMAT2.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS CENTERED NEAR 18.8N  75.4W AT 28/0300Z 
OR ABOUT 205 MILES W OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 100 MILES 
S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. SLOW RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 
FRIDAY AS IT MOVES WNW ALONG SOUTHERN CUBAN COAST...REACHING THE 
FAR WESTERN TIP OF CUBA BY LATE SAT. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT 
REPORTED 40 KT WINDS AT 23Z. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THE SAME 
TIME SHOWED A BROAD SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS 
APPROXIMATELY 200 TO THE WEST OF GUSTAV BETWEEN JAMAICA AND 
CUBA. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN. AS GUSTAV MOVES NW...THE LIGHT SE WINDS WILL INCREASE 
SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL GULF AS A 
TROPICAL WAVE NOW EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVES INTO THE 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...FOLLOWED BY RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE 
CENTRAL ATLC. 

ATLC WATERS S OF 31N AND W OF 55W...
CURRENTLY A 1014 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE 
BAHAMAS IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE 
AREA N OF 24N. MODERATE TO FRESH E FLOW IS NOTED ON 
SCATTEROMETER DATA ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA AND NEAR THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO THE NORTH OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV. THE 
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A 1008 MB 
LOW PRES AREA CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N58W. 
THE CONVECTION AROUND THIS LOW IS BETTER ORGANIZED THAN 
BEFORE...AND TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS INCREASING LIKELY 
SOMETIME TODAY. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE 
NNW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS 
REMAINING ON THE NE SIDE OF THE CENTER...STAYING MAINLY BETWEEN 
55W AND 65W TOWARDS BERMUDA THROUGH SAT NIGHT. 

WARNINGS...
SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
HURCN WARNING N OF 18N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W...AMZ086 AND AMZ082

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.