Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 281122
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV IS CENTERED NEAR 17.8N 75.6W AT 28/1130 
UTC OR ABOUT 70 NM EAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 148 NM 
SOUTH OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 KT. LATEST 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE 
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 
45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND/OR 
THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE WEST LATER TODAY AND TO THE 
WEST-NORTHWEST ON FRI PASSING VERY CLOSE TO JAMAICA LATER TODAY. 
RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND GUSTAV 
COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH BY FRI. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 73W-77W WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 16N76W TO 
15N80W INCLUDING THE SW TIP OF HAITI AND THE E TIP OF JAMAICA. 
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 
TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN CUBA...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER 
HAITI...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM 
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY 
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

THE 1008 MB SURFACE LOW ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WAS UPGRADED 
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT AT 28/0900 UTC. T.D. EIGHT IS 
CENTERED NEAR 19.8N 57.9W AT 28/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 308 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING 
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 
KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY 
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. T.D. EIGHT IS EXPECTED 
TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 17N60W 19N57W TO 
21N57W. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 21N WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE 
WAVE NEAR 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED 
MOISTURE EVIDENT ON MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION AND A BROAD INVERTED-V 
CURVATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N 
OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 32W-40W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. LOW 
AMPLITUDE AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY AIR...THUS 
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. WAVE REMAINS IN THE AREA OF T.D. 
EIGHT AND DOES NOT APPEAR AS WELL DEFINED AS 24 HOURS AGO. 

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N15W 14N25W 14N26W PEAKING 
NEAR THE 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 36W CONTINUING 
ALONG 7N47W 8N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 14N20W 9N18W 
TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 8N13W AND FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 
25W-30W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E US ENTERING THE GULF NEAR 
MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA BORDER SW TO OFF THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 
22N95W WITH AN UPPER HIGH REMAINING ANCHORED IN THE FLORIDA 
STRAITS NEAR 24N80W COVERING THE E GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM S 
MEXICO NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NE TO OVER THE NE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED/ 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20.5N TO 
INLAND OVER S MEXICO BETWEEN 93W-96W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 25N W OF 90W. AT THE 
SURFACE...A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N88W AND IS 
KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS 
MORNING. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN CONCERN AGAIN THIS MORNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN IS T.S. 
GUSTAV BETWEEN HAITI AND CUBA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN 
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS COVERS THE NW 
CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 78W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO 
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM 
OF LINE FROM 17N80W TO 21N86W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS 
THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 15N BETWEEN 67W TO OVER THE LESSER 
ANTILLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE S 
CARIBBEAN FROM INLAND TO WITHIN 75/90 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM 
THE GULF OF VENEZUELA TO 79W IN PANAMA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NEW CONCERN IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS T.D. EIGHT NE OF THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE 
ANCHORED IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W COVERS THE W ATLC W 
OF 75W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC DIPPING S TO 
29N WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY N OF THE REGION 
DIPPING JUST S OF BERMUDA. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS N OF PUERTO 
RICO NEAR 22N65W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 22N TO OVER 
THE E GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 63W-70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND 
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. AN UPPER RIDGE THAT DEVELOPED OVER T.D. 
EIGHT IS PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW MAINLY TO THE N AND E OF THE 
SYSTEM. A SECOND WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC 
CENTERED NEAR 32N43W EXTENDING S TO 27N. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE 
COVERS THE E ATLC ALONG 25N TO 40W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS 
OVER THE ATLC N OF 25N E OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH N OF 
THE AZORES. 

$$
WALLACE